Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged in Please refresh your browser to be logged in
He’s clearly not in the Churchill or Thatcher first class, and his personal flaws and precipitate fall from power means he’s demoted below the likes of Blair and Wilson in the second division. However, Brexit and his election success put him above May and Cameron, writes Sean O’Grady
Find your bookmarks in your Independent Premium section, under my profile
Boris Johnson’s legacy is built around his actions on Brexit
T he jury’s out”, to use a fashionable phrase, on Boris Johnson's position in a notional league table of prime ministers – and almost literally so as the House of Commons Committee on Privileges is yet to deliver its verdict on whether Johnson knowingly misled parliament about “Partygate”.
If they find he did - and the judgement will likely be a bit fuzzy - and, basically, he was indeed guilty of lying to MPs then that is traditionally a resigning-in-disgrace matter. Of course he’ll no longer be PM but he would be under moral if not political pressure to quit the Commons, though one of his defining characteristics as we have learned is his ability to ignore such influences.
The best that I think Johnson can probably hope for is some ambiguous, hedged criticism of him, but even that would be unprecedented among prime ministers, and pushes him much further down the rankings. He is also, after all, also the first serving premier to have been given a fixed penalty notice for a criminal offence. He is far from the first to encounter controversy in the way he manages his relationships with party donors (Tony Blair was interviewed under caution in Downing Street about “cash for honours” and Lloyd George was notorious for selling baronetcies and peerages); “wallpapergate” did done nothing to enhance Johnson’s reputation. With the multiple breaches of lockdown laws on his watch, the unlawful prorogation of parliament, censure by his own ethics advisers, the bungling of the Dominic Cummings, Owen Paterson and Chris Paterson scandals, plus other scrapes, conduct in office and personal morality are not Johnson’s strongest suits. Rarely has Number 10 more resembled a medieval court.
Yes, you might argue, but the public never minded about any of that. They knew they weren’t getting a saint. Johnson’s private life was an open book, and not a particularly uplifting one. His ministers and some of his MPs fussed about such things, and that’s why his premiership was so short - but didn’t he get the big calls right? What about Brexit?
This will always be Johnson’s strongest case to be placed high up in the listings. Brexit does indeed define his place in history, with the 2016 referendum and the 2019 general election marking the twin peaks of his career. But again, there is... context.
Winston Churchill, Margaret Thatcher and Clement Attlee are usually placed by historians at the top of the prime ministerial charts because their premierships were not only relatively long and eventful, but ones in which much was achieved and the face of the nation changed, in ways we are still living with (for good or ill). They are, mostly, unsullied by major personal scandals or lapses of judgement.
Just below the usual titans come those who were also in power for many years and achieved much, but whose flaws were more prominent - David Lloyd George (scandals), Tony Blair (Iraq), and HH Asquith (poor war-time leadership). Others were in power for an impressively long time, won elections against the odds, did little actually harm but also left a surprisingly scant legacy - John Major, Harold Wilson, Harold Macmillan, Stanley Baldwin, James Ramsay MacDonald. David Cameron’s six years in office might also fall into that middling category were it not for his overconfident belief in his ability to win the 2016 Brexit referendum. It was his project and he has to own the consequences.
Then there those whose premierships were both short and disastrous, who routinely finish towards the bottom of the pile because of catastrophic personally-driven policies - Anthony Eden (Suez) and Neville Chamberlain (appeasement).
Johnson with a bust of Winston Churchill – but he was not in the same class politically
Johnson will rank higher than those two, because it is, being generous, not yet obvious that Brexit is a national humiliation on quite the same scale. Johnson’s premiership should probably be ranked as the mirror image of that of Edward Heath (1970-74). Heath also found his time in Downing Street cut short, and his time in office marked by inflation, economic stagnation and growing industrial unrest, and eventually disowned by his party, but for decades no one could take away his signature historic achievement - leading the UK into the European Communities on 1 January 1973. Well, that is, until Boris Johnson came along.
There was more to Johnson’s premiership than Brexit, sleaze and scandal, but nothing that would elevate him to the first or even second rank of the holders of the highest elected office. The response to Covid-19 was certainly more chaotic and weaker than it could or should have been – but the coming public inquiry will determine exactly how wanting it was, and in what ways (if at all) Johnson can be held personally responsible for lost lives. As far as can be judged now, he dithered and delayed about imposing lockdowns and test-and-trace was an unmitigated disaster; but he made a bold decision to fund a British (not EU) vaccine programme at maximum speed, and, unusually, appointed highly competent individuals to drive it forward.
The pandemic, to be fair, because of its impact on the public finances, also destroyed any chance Johnson had of succeeding in the expensive programmes, such as “levelling up” and being able to “build back better”. The housing crisis is as bad as ever, and public services demonstrably weaker then when he took office in 2019.
The other “big call” Johnson supporters claim he got right was supplying arms, financial and moral support to Ukraine. If Johnson has any claim to Churchillian vision, then this is it. On the other hand, any other leader from his party or Keir Starmer would have done much the same thing, though with fewer trips to Kyiv. Still, Johnson deserves credit for this role, though the Ukrainian refugee resettlement scheme, like the Afghan one, didn’t seem to be working that well. He can also legitimately say he did his best at the Cop26 summit to make Net Zero a practical proposition; but he failed, by his own standards, on migration.
That, then, would leave Johnson towards the top of the third class of premiers
So Johnson’s premiership was short but undeniably more consequential than those of Theresa May and James Callaghan, who also spent about three years in Number 10. It’s tempting but wrong to throw the much-maligned Gordon Brown’s name into that pot for the simple but outstanding reason that he saved the global financial system with his 2008 plan, much copied, to nationalise broken banks, rather than try to prop them up by lending or giving them money. Brown, like most premiers, had a poor reputation after leaving office (and Mrs Duffy didn’t help), but he deserves his rehabilitation now. He was probably superior to Johnson.
Unlike Brown, May, Callaghan, Heath, Alec Douglas-Home, Bonar Law and others with brief spells in office, Johnson was a proven election winner, with his unexpected win in 2016 and 80-seat parliamentary majority in 2019, the best result for his party since at least 1987. On balance, a prime minister who is good at winning elections is superior to one who doesn’t. Yet Johnson, soon enough turned into an election loser, with local election and spectacular by-election losses that played a major role in his fall. One of the few consolations in Johnson being sent off the pitch for his early bath is that he can always claim that he was removed by his own party, and not by the people. His unbroken winning record, stretching back to when he challenged Ken Livingstone for mayor of London still stands.
That, then, would leave Johnson towards the top of the third class of premiers. He’s clearly not in the Churchill or Thatcher first class, and his personal flaws and precipitate fall from power means he’s demoted below the likes of Blair and Wilson in the second division. Brexit and his election success secure him a place above Theresa May and David Cameron in the next cohort, but, given Brexit's as yet unseized opportunities, below Brown. Even his harshest critics would surely concede Johnson didn’t do quite as much damage to the national interest as Eden and Chamberlain.
In many ways Johnson is lucky to find himself around the middle of the historical pack, but that jury, the Privileges Committee, chaired by Dame Harriet Harman, could well relegate him to closer to the bottom of the league, particularly if he finds himself ejected at a by-election in Uxbridge. That would make a rumoured comeback, already fanciful, rather harder to engineer.
One other compensation for Johnson is that his successor is shaping up to be even worse than him. It is almost as if Liz Truss had been promoted by Johnson as someone who, in his worst-case scenario of him being ousted out, would be bound to make him look good. Her place in history awaits, and maybe not for long.
Registration is a free and easy way to support our truly independent journalism
By registering, you will also enjoy limited access to Premium articles, exclusive newsletters, commenting, and virtual events with our leading journalists
{{#verifyErrors}} {{message}} {{/verifyErrors}} {{^verifyErrors}} {{message}} {{/verifyErrors}}
By clicking ‘Create my account’ you confirm that your data has been entered correctly and you have read and agree to our Terms of use, Cookie policy and Privacy notice.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy policy and Terms of service apply.
Already have an account? sign in
By clicking ‘Register’ you confirm that your data has been entered correctly and you have read and agree to our Terms of use, Cookie policy and Privacy notice.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy policy and Terms of service apply.
Registration is a free and easy way to support our truly independent journalism
By registering, you will also enjoy limited access to Premium articles, exclusive newsletters, commenting, and virtual events with our leading journalists
{{#verifyErrors}} {{message}} {{/verifyErrors}} {{^verifyErrors}} {{message}} {{/verifyErrors}}
By clicking ‘Create my account’ you confirm that your data has been entered correctly and you have read and agree to our Terms of use, Cookie policy and Privacy notice.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy policy and Terms of service apply.
Already have an account? sign in
By clicking ‘Register’ you confirm that your data has been entered correctly and you have read and agree to our Terms of use, Cookie policy and Privacy notice.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy policy and Terms of service apply.
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
Boris Johnson’s legacy is built around his actions on Brexit
POOL/AFP via Getty Images
Johnson with a bust of Winston Churchill – but he was not in the same class politically
Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Start your Independent Premium subscription today.
Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged in Please refresh your browser to be logged in
Or if you would prefer: