Eagles mailbag: The bar for Jalen Hurts, Milton Williams’ upside and more - The Athletic

2022-05-28 04:27:57 By : Ms. Sylvy Leung

You’ve got Queztions, I’ve got Gowanswers.

Seems like the big question for all of us is…

Given the roster improvement, and assuming average health year, if you’re Eagles decision makers what do you need to see from Hurts to decide to stick with him?

W/L record? Certain stats? Top __ QB? Certain throws w/ consistency?

— Sean McComb (@seanmccomb) May 19, 2022

There were several questions along these lines, so let’s tackle the big question at the top.

The Eagles have purposely upgraded the roster enough on offense this offseason to serve dual purposes. Short term, I don’t think it’s controversial to say they have a top-1o roster aside from the quarterback. If Hurts is simply as good as he was last season, the Eagles should be a playoff team and might be considered the favorites to win the NFC East. Long term, the Eagles have given themselves the best opportunity to properly evaluate Hurts. He figures to play behind an elite offensive line and with one of the better groups of pass catchers in the league. Whatever pressure he faces this season is less about the Eagles’ 2022 success than it is his ability to stake a claim to be the team’s quarterback for the foreseeable future.

As for what he tangibly needs to do to stake that claim, the disappointing answer is there is no real answer. Everything depends on the other options available. Hurts could not improve at all but still be the Eagles’ quarterback in 2023 if no veteran upgrade is available via trade and the Eagles are unable to trade up in the draft for a first-round quarterback. He could make a leap in Year 3, turn into a borderline top-10 quarterback, lead the Eagles to a playoff win and still be replaced if general manager Howie Roseman was able to acquire, for instance, Lamar Jackson.

What we know about the Eagles, and what this offseason reinforced, is that Roseman will always be willing to push his chips to the middle of the table. He has talked candidly before about the “obsession” with finding a franchise quarterback. I think what Hurts does this season is the less important variable for next offseason than what quarterbacks are on the market. Hurts can definitely play himself out of the job, but barring a star-turn run deep into the playoffs, I’m not sure he can realistically guarantee himself the long-term job in Philadelphia.

How many starting spots on the Eagles are held by a guy who is higher ranked at his position than Hurts is among QBs? (If Hurts is the 18th best QB, hypothetically, how many guys are top 17, or top 34 for positions like WR or guard or CB).

Hurts finished 13th in EPA per dropback last season, ahead of a few quarterbacks most teams would rather have, like Russell Wilson, Derek Carr and Jackson. So for the purposes of this exercise, let’s set the bar at the league average. How many projected starters for the Eagles are better than the league average for their position?

I count seven on offense (Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson, Jason Kelce, Lane Johnson, Dallas Goedert, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith). You could also convince me Quez Watkins is an above-average third wide receiver. Right guard is the only spot in danger of being decidedly below average relative to the rest of the league, and I’d say the strength in numbers of the offensive line as a whole and Jeff Stoutland’s influence combine to quell any real concerns there.

On defense, I count four definites (Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave, Haason Reddick and Darius Slay) with Josh Sweat, Avonte Maddox and James Bradberry capable of rising to that level. Linebacker looks to be about league average, which would be a marked improvement. Only the safety tandem would be considered below average on paper at this point, which might just be a resource-allocation decision considering what’s asked of the position in Jonathan Gannon’s defense.

The moral of the story is the roster is in great shape heading into the summer. That doesn’t always translate to wins, but Roseman deserves credit for how quickly he has turned things around. It’s also why the focus on Hurts’ level of performance in 2022 is so much more about his future with the franchise than about the Eagles’ 2022 upside. If he’s basically the same quarterback he was in 2021, the surrounding roster makes the Eagles a good bet to win the division.

Should I be concerned about the amount of turnover in the Eagles' front office this offseason, or is this fairly typical?

— Steve Silver (@SteveTSRA) May 18, 2022

No other team in the league lost three executives to assistant general manager jobs, so turnover to this extent is atypical and it’s reasonable to be concerned. But it’s also not as if the Eagles are unaware of the importance of backfilling those positions. Andy Weidl’s candidacy for the Steelers’ general manager jobs looms as well and could leave Roseman with a lot of high-ranking new faces.

Reported additions to the front office thus far include former Browns national scout Charles Walls, who will reportedly serve as director of player personnel, former Broncos vice president of player personnel Matt Russell, who will serve in a similar role as Tom Donahoe did, and former Broncos assistant pro scouting director Jordan Dizon, who will reportedly be a national scout. But Roseman has not yet hired someone at the level of the departed trio of Catherine Raîche, Ian Cunningham and Brandon Brown, despite a slew of reported interviews (and an odd report about the Colts’ Mo Brown).

For a qualified candidate, one of the pros of working for the Eagles is that Jeffrey Lurie has a reputation for paying his football operations staff very well relative to the rest of the league. The Eagles are also known for offering outsized titles (for instance, they had 11 vice presidents across football operations before Raîche’s departure). The minuses include a somewhat blocked path to further advancement (Roseman’s not going anywhere, and the Eagles have not traditionally had someone with the assistant general manager title) and questions from the outside about the organizational decision-making process. To be sure, Roseman would highlight for prospective candidates his history of colleagues moving on to bigger roles elsewhere.

Internally, the Eagles are bullish on some of the mid-level employees expected to move into larger roles. Director of college scouting Alan Wolking is someone to remember (conveniently, you can read more about him here). He and Southeast area scout Phil Bhaya were both given credit by Roseman and Weidl after the draft for their work on the Eagles’ tandem of Georgia draft picks (which followed a year in which they drafted two Alabama players). West Coast area scout Ryan Myers is also expected to move into a role with more responsibility, as is Ameena Soliman, who is likely to replace departed director of scouting operations Casey Weidl.

In terms of how much all of this impacts on-field performance, it’s sort of impossible to know from the outside.

Who has more sacks in 2022, Jordan Davis or Milton Williams?

Did you know there were 24 rookies with at least 100 pass-rush snaps in 2021, and Williams hit the quarterback more often than all but six of them? And that none of the players ahead of him are interior defensive linemen? In other words, Williams was the best rookie interior pass rusher in the league last year, so as much as the Eagles expect Davis to be a more productive pass rusher in the NFL than he was in college, Williams is the overwhelming favorite here.

Who would you say is the most likely player to have a breakout season?

Aside from Williams? So many of the projected starters and role players seem like known quantities at this point. You could argue Goedert emerging as a top-three tight end would constitute a breakout. Smith is a possibility, but there are only so many passing yards to go around. Mailata’s national profile might rise to the point where he’s widely considered a Pro Bowl-caliber player. If the Eagles are making a bet, it seems to be on Marcus Epps.

How is this years' offseason signing of vets different than infamous Dream Team? Also, has Howie learned anything?

— Your friendly neighborhood cat (@badnewsbears20) May 18, 2022

A contrarian after my own heart. I, too, am growing uncomfortable with how universal the praise is for the Eagles’ moves this offseason.

But there are some important major differences. So many of those moves seemed like adding big names without concern for how they would fit together or in the scheme (most notably at cornerback). It does seem like all of the big-name additions this offseason have easily identifiable roles and don’t clash with other personnel. That was also the truncated offseason of the lockout, and the Eagles had a ton of coaching staff turnover. This year’s staff is the same.

The other key difference — get ready if you’re playing the Bo Wulf drinking game — is the age of the big acquisitions. One of the most impressive aspects of this Eagles offseason has been the relative youth of their big acquisitions. The new players signed to long-term contracts, Reddick and Brown, will be 28 and 25 this season, respectively.

what are the chances of Britain Covey starting the season as the Eagles primary punt (and kickoff) returner?

— David Rhode (@davidrhode) May 18, 2022

I think he has a real chance! I’d give it 39 turkeys.

Here’s more on the undrafted rookie class.

If you had to play Sheil, Zack, and Marissa in a lawn game (cornhole, horseshoes, ladder gold, etc.); which game would you pick to achieve victory?

You would need to play each player individually in a BO3, in any order.

— Dry Island Resident (@Snuffle05504409) May 18, 2022

Any of them. But cornhole is a sure thing.

(Photo: G Fiume / Getty Images)