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Morning briefing: Iran is ready to return to the negotiating table Iran is ready to return to the negotiating table... | View comments ()

The following is today’s foreign policy briefing: Iran held talks with the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Grossi, the United States and other major oil-consuming countries have coordinated actions to develop oil reserves, and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abi Ahmed pledged to join the "front line." .

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Iran receives the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency before nuclear negotiations

The following is today’s foreign policy briefing: Iran held talks with the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Grossi, the United States and other major oil-consuming countries have coordinated actions to develop oil reserves, and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abi Ahmed pledged to join the "front line." .

If you want to receive the morning newsletter in your inbox every working day, please sign up here.

Iran receives the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency before nuclear negotiations

The head of the international nuclear watchdog arrived in Tehran today to hold talks with senior Iranian officials before the new negotiations aimed at resuming the 2015 nuclear agreement in Vienna next Monday.

Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is urging Iranian officials to respond to monitoring equipment and other violations noted by IAEA inspectors. One thing that has become clear is that Iran’s increased uranium enrichment activities far exceed the 3.67% enrichment threshold set by the 2015 agreement.

Iran's uranium stocks enriched to 60% have increased from about 15 pounds in the summer to about 55 pounds today. (Nuclear-weapon-grade uranium is enriched to 90% or higher.)

With the resumption of negotiations in Vienna next Monday, US officials seem to be pessimistic about the prospect of a quick deal. The New York Times reported on Sunday that the White House is exploring an interim agreement aimed at suspending Iran’s enrichment activities in exchange for some sanctions relief. Part of the compromise was the realization that Israel’s sabotage in recent months did not significantly hinder Iran’s nuclear program.

With a new negotiating team in place following the election of Ebrahim Raisi as Iran's president in July, a harder line is expected. The confusing statements made by In Amer-Abdullahian and chief negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani before the meeting indicated that a consistent approach is unlikely.

Henry Roma, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, told Foreign Policy that Iran still has good reasons to return to the negotiating table.

"The most important reason is that they need to put Russia and China on the sidelines, and the Russians and the Chinese want to reach an agreement. They want Iran to participate," Rome said. "I think Iran is very eager to ensure that no matter how this situation changes, they can at least make a reasonable statement that they are not the cause of the breakdown of the negotiations."

As Monday approaches, Roma is still skeptical of an immediate breakthrough: "I very much doubt what fruitful things will happen in the first round. But if there is some flexibility around the table, you can quickly see the movement. ."

Roma added: "The advantage of restoring the original agreement is that, taking into account the time that has passed, some changes have been made, and the agreement has basically been written." "In my opinion, there is a deal on the negotiating table. Some things are needed. Repair, but none of them are impossible."

What are we focusing on today

Oil confrontation. The United States will use its strategic fuel reserves to curb rising energy prices, which is expected to be officially announced by the White House today. This move is part of a joint initiative by China, India, Japan and South Korea, which will also release oil reserves. This decision caused conflict between the United States and OPEC, and OPEC may decide not to increase production to maintain prices at its December meeting.

Putin receives Abbas. Russian President Vladimir Putin received Mahmoud Abbas, Chairman of the Palestinian National Authority, in Sochi, Russia today. A statement from the Kremlin stated that the two are expected to discuss "bilateral cooperation and the situation in the Middle East, taking into account Russia's efforts to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli issue." Abbas’s visit took place shortly after the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov received the Palestinian politician Mohamed Dharan, who is considered to be a strong enemy of Abbas.

Abiy is on the "front line". Ethiopian Prime Minister Abi Ahmed promised to lead the federal army "from the front" starting today, and the country's internal conflict with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) forces has escalated significantly. In response, a TPLF spokesperson stated that the organization will not "relax their relentless progress to end [Abiy's] strangulation of our people."

Brexit negotiations. In an interview with the Daily Telegraph, British Trade Minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan ruled out the possibility of unilaterally suspending the Northern Ireland Protocol "before Christmas", implying that the negotiators of the United Kingdom and the European Union will be in the next few days. There is breathing room within the week to reach an agreement on the most controversial measures in the Brexit agreement. The Brexit minister David Frost said last week that a new agreement with EU officials may be reached before the end of the year.

Access to reliable information is essential for democratic governance, but a series of existential threats to independent media threaten democracy throughout the world. On November 30th, discuss with FP how to protect free and independent media. Register here.

Today, NASA will launch a mission to learn how to best save the world from a catastrophic asteroid impact. NASA will launch the spacecraft DART (Dual Asteroid Redirection Test) with the purpose of crashing it into the asteroid Dimorphos, which is 6.7 million miles away from Earth, and slightly deviating from its orbit. 

Kelly Fast, a project scientist at NASA’s Office of Planetary Defense Coordination, said that NASA’s spacecraft is far from the nuclear weapons and space weapons seen in disaster movies, but the agency hopes that its impact should be sufficient. "DART will only slightly change the orbital period of Dimorphos. If asteroids are discovered early, this is all that is needed."

Colm Quinn is the newsletter author of Foreign Policy. Twitter: @colmfquinn

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